Yaacov Mutnikas, S&P Global. NSE Energy Seminar Series. 4 pm Wed. 2/28, Hill Hall 202

Understanding Global Credit Cycles and Their Effects
Yaacov Mutnikas, S&P Global
NSE Energy Seminar Series
4 pm MST, Wednesday 28 February, Hill Hall 202

The global energy economy is undergoing a fundamental transition and a movement away from carbon intensive fuels. While this has been driven by policy shifts, sustainable markets for non-carbon emitting technologies are essential. Here, macroeconomic credit and economic cycles will play an important role. Recognizing that credit also plays a pivotal role in precipitating financial crises, which can stall technology shifts, a comprehensive understanding of credit cycles is imperative. While these cycles manifest periodicity, their precise timing, duration, and magnitude remain elusive. A conceptual understanding of credit cycle causation and empirical quantification of their dynamic behaviour is crucial. We have conducted a study into the intricate realm of time series analysis, with a specific focus on its application in understanding economic and credit cycles. The overarching objective is to unravel potential interrelationships between different time series vectors, their respective cycle lengths and amplitudes, this being a critical endeavour aimed at predicting future economic downturns and helping in managing financial downside. The results underscore the significance of time series analysis in comprehending the intricate dynamics of economic and credit cycles.